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Are the 49ers skilled, or just lucky? Part 2.

In my previous post, I asked whether the San Francisco 49ers’ improbably successful season was due more to luck (say, by being granted a relatively easy schedule), or due to real improvements in the skill of the team. By comparing the 2011 season with the 2010 season and correcting the schedule for the number of wins and losses each team accrued, I concluded that the level of difficulty of the team’s schedule year over year was roughly the same, and therefore more of their success should be attributed to skill rather than luck.

In this follow-up, I’d like to dig a little deeper into measurements of the 49ers’ skill, in an attempt to further bolster the above claim. If you are a football fan, then you are fortunate to have me write two football-themed posts in a row. If you are not a football fan, fear not; with the season . . . → Read More: Are the 49ers skilled, or just lucky? Part 2.

Are the 49ers skilled, or just lucky?

Fans of the two football teams who face off in the Super Bowl will no doubt spend the weekend filled with nervous anticipation – hopeful that their team will emerge victorious, but certain of the knowledge that there can only be one champion. For the rest of us, we must hang our heads with relative degrees of shame, and bide our time until the next season brings with it the promise of new opportunities for all 32 NFL teams.

For a San Francisco 49ers fan like myself, most of the last decade has been spent in a fairly constant state of disappointment. But after ten years without a playoff appearance, the team blossomed this season under the influence of new head coach Jim Harbaugh, and came within one game of their first Super Bowl appearance since 1995.

This poster hangs proudly in our apartment.

Despite a great season, in . . . → Read More: Are the 49ers skilled, or just lucky?